XP's FREE Daily MLB Pick
KC vs. StL (RL-1.5 +118)
Posted: Tuesday, May 21st, 2019 @ 5:35 a.m. PST • Good luck!
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XP specializes in Major League Baseball but invests in all other sports for educational and entertainment purposes only. Check this page every day for XP's FREE Daily Picks. All picks and results are documented on the Results Page.
General Form #1: Parenthesis follow the team in which XP is investing. In the following example, the first line indicates XP is investing in StL to win. XP is investing in NYM to win on the second line.
StL (ML +120) vs. NYM
StL vs. NYM (ML -120)
With few exceptions, most wagers will be familiar: ML = Moneyline; RL = Runline; and O/U = Over/Under (Totals). Starting Sunday, September 15th, 2018, all lines are from MyBookie.
General Form #2: XP invests ("risks") 1 unit per pick. In XP's system, each unit is worth $10.00. You determine the amount assigned to each unit according to your bankroll (i.e., how much you can afford and how confident you are). Obviously everyone is different... some may assign $1.00 per unit, some may assign $10.00 per unit, and others may assign $100.00 per unit, etc., you get the point.
Goal: There is only one goal and that is to be ahead ($) at the end of the season or when you're ready to cash out.
Early lines vs. later lines. Understanding line movement is important and oftentimes challenging. XP will often invest/post the day before the event if better odds are likely. For example, let's say the Islanders opened at +133 MoneyLine on Sunday but by game time on Monday, the odds moved to +105... it is advantageous to wager earlier. The lines can obviously move in the different direction too. So ultimately, sometimes XP wagers the day before (or early in the morning) - other times, right before the event begins. Not only do we want a winner, but we want to win the most possible.
Don't "follow" me (or anyone for that matter)! The purpose of XP's FREE Picks is to provide for you another resource as you gather information from a variety of resources to collect knowledge as just one small part of your capping duties. If you choose to mindlessly "follow me" (or anyone else) you're being lazy. I don't know if I'm a great capper or a horrible capper - every year is different. I've had some successful seasons and some failing seasons so I guess we won't know until the end of the season. Sometimes I get hot... sometimes I'm cold! Plus, if someone is merely "following" another and there is a cold streak, they for some reason get mad at who they are following. You are responsible for your investments. Good luck!
XP likes underdogs for a lot of reasons, but will still invest in favorites. Ultimately, the investment, no matter what it is, is intended to be a winner, baby!
Bottom line: Success in sports investment is ultimately measured in the total units (+/-) you have. Records and winning percentages don't really count: it's cool to brag that you are 9-1, winning at a 90% clip, but if you're still down 5 units, that is what matters. It's cool to brag that, "I'm hot! I'm on a seven-game winning streak!", but if you're still down 5 units, that is what matters.
Cardinal Rule #1: Never invest more than you are more than happy to lose.
XP's 9 Guiding Principles
Guiding Principle #1: Don't bet parlays.
Guiding Principle #2: Don't chase.
Guiding Principle #3: Don't bet props.
Guiding Principle #4: Recognize trends.
Guiding Principle #5: Don't play just for the action.
Guiding Principle #6: Increase/decrease wager size as per level of confidence.
Guiding Principle #7: Become an expert on a few teams - specialize.
Guiding Principle #8: Don't pay for picks.
Guiding Principle #9: There is no such thing as a "lock."
XP Likes The Dogs
We often know who the best team is but here's the problem: the best team doesn't always win. Do the math...
When I say, "dogs," I really mean "Plus Odds." Here's an example: Let's say Boston is the huge favorite (-200) to beat Baltimore. Okay, well, we all know Boston is the better team (at least in 2018). But I don't want to risk $20.00 to win $10.00. If I lose that wager, it will take me two winning wagers just to get back to even. So how can I turn this game into plus odds? Well, looking at the Runline, I see Boston isn't only favored to win on the Moneyline (-200), but the Runliine (to win by 2 or more runs) offers +110. That means I can risk $10.00 to win $11.00. I like that! And if I do lose, only one winning wager will put me back at Even.
Also, wagering on dogs means that if I hit at a 50% or so rate then I'll finish ahead in the long run. If I'm wagering on favorites, generally speaking, I'm gonna have to hit about 60-65% to finish even or above.
1. Signup for FREE at MyBookie & make your deposit
2. Visit XP's VIP Lounge Daily
3. Check XP's FREE Daily Pick
4. Check the Games and Lines from MyBookie
5. Gather Information from a variety of resources
6. Do Your Homework
7. Always Follow Cardinal Rule #1 and XP's Guiding Principles
8. Make a Wise Sports Investment
9. Good luck!
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XP Likes the Dogs